Og the caveman awoke from uneasy dreams and thought about the future of technology. "If only we could have a way to break up woolly mammoth bones, we could eat the juicy bits inside."
He called together a group of his friends and developed the Hammer Community (for "hammer" is what he called his new idea). They shared the vision of full bellies and easy banging and set a few members of the community to the task of developing Hammer 1.0.
After a while the folks who actually did the work returned with a stick poked through a hole in a rock: a reference implementation of Hammer 1.0. It was revolutionary and looked like it was well on the way toward meeting the goal of bashing bones and enemies and recalcitrant children, but (as the members of the Hammer Community were quick to point out) the rock had a nasty tendency to fly off the end and smite innocent bystanders.
So they developed a spec for Hammer 2.0 that added the additional functional requirement of not having to go find the rock after each blow. And after another long while, the workers came up with a rock and a stick and a leather thong to hold the rock in place.
Then Moon wandered by and picked up a couple of free betas. "Cool" said Moon, and proceeded to use the Hammer to beat on the log cylinders with their ends covered with hides that he and his fellow musicians had been wearing out their hands on.
And the moral of the story is, don't allow drummers to stay overnight in your hotel.
There is just no telling what use will be made of a technology.
We've been thinking about VRML as a way to build cyberspace, and some truly wonderful work has gone on in that direction, but maybe that isn't the biggest impact VRML is going to have.
Imagine that Community Place Conductor and V*Realm Builder and the dozens of other modelers have moved just one generation past where they are today. Now imagine that you put one of those modelers into the hands of artists and engineers and ordinary people.
If you did, then those people would have the ability to sketch in 4D (3D + time, since VRML describes scenes in that dimension, too), and when they were done, they could share what they've sketched.
I recently did something that I'm sure the rest of you do all the time. I'm developing a system/software architecture for the modeling & simulation domain -- nothing you should pay any attention to, but I mentioned it to indicate that what I'm working on is moderately abstract.
I started to prepare some PowerPoint slides to pitch the architecture (and my investment in time) and as I went along, I started to use PowerPoint to sketch and design the architecture graphically.
In the process, I found a couple of problems with my original idea. We all have: pictures are marvelous for showing relationships, and it's common experience that problems and potentials show up in a diagram of a system or a problem space that you'd never have thought of.
Now suppose I had one of these next generation VRML modelers at hand: a VRML modeler that is optimized to be a sketching tool, not a CAD tool. I could model my ideas in 4D, and when I was done I could share my model with other people over the net.
The ability to sketch, even in 3D, is (this surprised me) on the very edge of technology. Take a look at JavaSketch (I'm indebted to Sascha Becker for the link). JavaSketch (though very well done) is a hugely limited tool, and the resulting 3D model isn't even shareable, except by calling someone over to your terminal.
Yes, CAD has been doing 3D modeling for years, but I'm not talking about a tool that takes as long to learn how to use as a CAD program; I'm talking about a tool that takes no longer to learn (to the basic level of getting around in it) than PowerPoint. And I'm certainly not talking about taking as long to develop a model as you have to with a CAD program. Intuitive, quick, reasonably good looking results.
It may turn out that the most dramatic impact VRML has on our lives isn't from cyberspace, but instead comes from VRML's ability to serve as the foundation for putting a 4D sketching tool into the hands of a large number of people on this planet.
Coming in part two: would you buy a used car from this man?